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Greg Polson previews Cessnock Monday July 17

The Racenet barrier statistics for 1350m races at Cessnock make interesting reading if punters are intending to invest in the only race over the journey on Monday.

Here's the barrier stats from the Racenet page for Cessnock.


 

Runners

Winners

S/R

1350m

1

185

31

16.8

 

 

2

185

31

16.8

 

 

3

185

18

9.7

 

 

4

185

14

7.6

 

 

5

185

16

8.6

 

 

6

181

18

9.9

 

 

7

176

14

8

 

 

8

162

10

6.2

 

 

9

148

9

6.1

 

 

10

132

6

4.5

 

 

11

116

6

5.2

 

 

12

97

7

7.2

 

 

13

75

2

2.7

 

 

14

48

3

6.2

 

Clearly the inside barriers are significantly advantaged with gates 1 and 2 far and away the best launching positions with the win strike rate dropping off considerably for barriers 8 to 14.

When we look at the early betting for Cessnock Leagues Club Benchmark 55 Handicap (1350m) we see why the barriers stats are so important.

TAB Number

Horse

Barrier before scratchings

Sportsbet

1

Eastern Paradise (SCR)

10

3.8

2

Deangelo (SCR)

16

4

15

Jackknife (SCR)

13

7

9

Red Danaseur

11

8.50

3

Lady Marmaletta

15

9.50

12

Silent Dream

1

9.50

18

Celtic Trail

6

12

The barrier draws look legitimate red flags for the horses prominent in the market with the top five in early betting drawing double figure barriers.

Trainers are obviously aware of the uphill battle horses face from wide draws over the 1350m at Cessnock with the top three in the market coming out at scratching time but the withdrawals have only improved the situation by one gate for Red Danaseur and Lady Marmaletta who are likely to be the top two in betting.

The race has upset written all over it and arguably would be a race to pass from a punting perspective but it is the penultimate leg of the quaddie so we have to have a go.

Happy to risk Red Danaseur and Lady Marmaletta.

Both Red Danaseur's career wins from 32 starts have been on good ground so with a soft track posted for racing on Monday and the barrier disadvantage, Red Danaseur will be well under the odds.

Lady Marmaletta does get a set of blinkers for the first time but is back in distance on her latest outing and hasn't won below 1450m so she too is likely to be well under the odds.

The horses that represent value are (8) Musical Family who will jump from barrier five and was a winner at the track and distance last preparation and is ready to do something third-up, (12) Silent Dream launching form barrier one whose only career win was over the 1350m at Cessnock, (13) Konkota from barrier three has been placed in four of her last six starts and (18) the Jason Deamer-trained Celtic Trail from barrier six who was runner-up at the track and distance two runs back.

Musical Family, Silent Dream, Konkota and Celtic Trail are the four I will be including in the quaddies happy to leave the two favourites out with the barrier stats against them.



Monday, 17 July 2017